The United States has set a goal to eliminate all carbon pollution from power plants by 2035, according to President Joe Biden. This is a step towards the larger goal of eliminating greenhouse gas emissions from the entire economy by midcentury, which will help curb climate change.
But The ambitions of the Biden Administration are set for collide with the country’s power industry, who looks like it will continue to burn fossil fuels in the foreseeable future.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, around 17 gigawatts of natural gas plants will be built in the United States over the next few years. This is enough power to power nearly 12.8 million homes . If they aren’t closed soon, these plants could continue to operate for decades on an electricity grid that still receives almost 60% of its power via fossil fuels .
While natural gas produces less greenhouse gases than coal, it is more polluting than that of coal. However, the production and transportation of gas emits large amounts methane which is a powerful greenhouse gas. According to , a study published last year in Nature, the majority of remaining oil and gas reserves must be buried to ensure that the world can keep global temperatures from rising too fast.
Analysts don’t think the U.S. will soon stop relying on natural gas. Many industry analysts believe that America needs natural gas in order to keep its remaining coal plants from closing. This is until more reliable options such as battery storage become available.
Andy DeVries, CreditSights analyst who monitors companies in the U.S. energy industry, says that if you want to get 20% off the grid by 2030, 2035, then there is no way you can increase gas without doing so. How long does it take to get the gas off the grid after the coal is gone? DeVries states that it will take at least 10 more years. “And that’s aggressive.”
Scientists believe that the countries’ incremental reductions in their emissions will not be sufficient to prevent more severe storms, floods, and heat waves. Although the U.S. has a huge pipeline of renewable energy projects 45 gigawatts are anticipated to be built next year , it makes it more difficult to reduce global warming by continuing to emit from fossil fuel plants.
“The consensus is that net zero greenhouse gas emissions should be achieved economy-wide by 2050 to avoid the worst effects of climate change,” states Ben King, associate director at Rhodium Group, which is a research company. He says that continuing to build natural gas plants “certainly appears at odds with that commitment.”
Natural gas will not stop power companies from reducing their emissions plans, insists the company
A subsidiary of Southern Company is building one of America’s new natural-gas plants in Alabama. Southern Company is a huge utility serving millions of customers across the Southeast. Alabama regulators approved the project in 2020 shortly after Southern announced its plans for eliminating or compensating greenhouse gas emissions by midcentury.
After being under pressure from large investors , Southern established its climate target. Investors and activists praised the net zero pledge as the company uses 70% of its energy from fossil fuels. Southern was praised by investors and activists in a statement. He stated that cutting carbon emissions is not only a moral imperative but a financial necessity.
Southern isn’t abandoning fossil fuels, however.
The company’s new Alabama gas plant will be operational once it is up and running. This is well beyond the time Southern claimed it would achieve net zero emissions. More natural gas is on the horizon. Southern’s Alabama subsidiary has stated that it expects will make gas investments in the 2040s.
Southern spokesperson stated that the company is committed to reducing its [greenhouse gas] emissions in order to provide our customers with clean energy futures. The spokesperson cited recent comments made by Thomas Fanning, Southern’s CEO. Fanning claimed natural gas “must continue to be a solution” to America’s energy problems.
Fanning stated that “people who say hydrocarbons will disappear and we don’t need them” at an energy conference held in September. Fanning stated that all of the existing or nearly all existing natural gas plants will be equipped with technology to capture carbon emissions by 2050 in order to combat heat-trapping pollution. To reduce emissions, Fanning suggested hydrogen.
Similar bets are being made by other utilities, which heavily rely on fossil fuels.
Duke Energy has stated that it will achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. It is currently building a natural gas facility in North Carolina, which it claims will be able to also burn hydrogen. A Duke spokesperson said natural gas is a “bridge fuel” that will enable the company to shut down its coal plants. Dominion Energy’s spokesperson said that the gas plant it is building in South Carolina would likely only be used when there is high electricity demand.
To help them achieve their climate goals, both companies are exploring carbon capture technology. This prevents emissions from being released to the atmosphere during fossil fuel burning. They joined an group of utilities who want to build hydrogen projects in the southeastern U.S.
Carbon capture technology is costly and has performed worse than expected . Analysts warn that hydrogen could pose challenges, with the possibility of weakening the pipelines that transport it.
“There’s no reason to ignore any utility’s net zero commitment, especially if they’re investing in anything that emits CO2 or has new emissions,” states Daniel Tait. He is a research and communications manager at the Energy and Policy Institute. This watchdog group advocates for renewable energy.
As temperatures rise, the world faces climate changes that are unstoppable
At the slow rate that countries reduce their emissions, warming could have runaway effects that could cause permanent changes in Earth’s ecosystems such as the widespread loss of coral reefs.
Lisa Dilling, an environmental studies professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, says that the faster we accelerate greenhouse gasses and continue to put them into the climate, the greater our chances of reaching tipping point in the Earth’s ecosystem. These tipping points are when our climate begins to change in ways that could be irreversible and possibly self-perpetuating.
The recent United Nations climate conference was held in Egypt. Countries stated that they are still committed to keeping global average temperatures below 1.5 degrees Celsius (or 2.8 degrees Fahrenheit) and this is compared to the preindustrial era of 1800s. Scientists warn that if the world heats up, it is more likely for catastrophic consequences. It is not clear how this goal will be reached. Although the majority of heat-trapping pollutants are caused by humans using oil, coal, and gas, several countries have blocked language regarding phasing out fossil fuel use from being included within the final agreement.
Manish Bapna CEO, Natural Resources Defense Council, stated in Egypt that “We must rapidly plan out and phase out coal, oil, and gas,”
According to industry analysts, the problem is that power companies aren’t seeing any other options than natural gas at this time. Although batteries are receiving a lot more attention, the top executives of large utility companies aren’t “entirely confident” that they’re ready to support all the intermittent wind and sun power that’s being added to our grid, according to Ryan Sweezey, an analyst with Wood Mackenzie.
Sweezey states that “I don’t think people understand how extraordinary, how monumentally difficult it is to essentially rebuild the energy system.” He says net zero emissions won’t be possible by 2050 “just because of the magnitude of the challenges.”
It is unclear if the U.S. could go faster. Experts believe that the Inflation Reduce Act recently passed could be a key to making this happen. This law offers billions in incentives to make renewable energy more competitive with fossil fuels. The war in Ukraine pushed up natural gas prices and changed the way some investors approach the energy market, according to King of the Rhodium Group.
King states that developers are reassessing natural gas and asking themselves if it’s a wise, long-term investment. King points out that there is a possibility of higher natural gas prices in the future and how affordable it is to use technologies such as wind, solar, and batteries.
However, energy markets are changing slowly and companies continue to make investments that will result in new emissions.
Julien Dumoulin Smith, analyst at Bank of America, says that he believes there is a long tail to this story. This is specifically tied to natural gas.
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